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Will the Federal Reserve take us back to an era of cheap money?

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Will the Federal Reserve take us back to an era of cheap money?


Investors celebrated what could be the return of an easy money era after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 and projected rates may decline even further over the next two years. 

Chairman Jerome Powell was asked by FOX Business’ Edward Lawrence whether the U.S. could be headed back to a time when rates hovered near zero, or so-called cheap money.

It’s just a great question that we can only speculate about intuitively,” Powell said. “My own sense is that, that we’re not going back to that. But, you know, honestly, we’re going to find out. But, you know, it feels to me that the neutral rate is probably significantly higher than it was back then. 

“How high is it? I just don’t think we know.”

THE FED CUTS RATE BY 50 BASIS POINTS: WHAT TO KNOW

The Federal Funds target rate now sits between 4.75%-5.00%, and projections from the central bank show rates could fall below 4%.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
I:DJI DOW JONES AVERAGES 42063.36 +38.17 +0.09%
SP500 S&P 500 5702.55 -11.09 -0.19%

Investors celebrated the move, pushing stocks, which were already at record levels, even higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 42,000 for the first time ever, while the S&P 500 hovers at its all-time high. 

HOW THE FED’S HISTORIC RATE CUT MAY IMPACT YOUR DAILY FINANCES

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The last time policymakers cut rates, the COVID-19 pandemic was raging as a public health and financial crisis, prompting an emergency rate cut in March 2020 when the Fed took rates to a range of 1%-1.25%, the largest cut since the 2008 financial crisis.

“The spread of the coronavirus has brought new challenges and risks,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the time during a news conference. “The virus has afflicted many communities around the world, and the outbreak has also disrupted economic activity in many countries. The virus and the measures being taken to contain it will surely weigh on economic activity, both here and abroad, for some time.”

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, D.C., July 31, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Americans enjoyed the lowest borrowing costs of a generation. For example, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to a record low of 2.65% in January 2021, as tracked by Freddie Mac. 

HOW LOW MAY MORTGAGE RATES GO?

new homes being build in Sacramento, California

Homes under construction in Sacramento, Calif., July 3, 2023. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

While the start of the current easing cycle is underway, the current conditions are far from the pandemic upheaval. Still, borrowing costs will begin to fall, but its unlikely rates will return to the lows of four years ago. 

FED GOVERNOR EXPLAINS HER NO VOTE

Additionally, inflation remains a risk. That’s why Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman was the sole dissent, voting against a rate cut. 

“While core inflation remains around or above 2.5%, I see the risk that the committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate. We have not yet achieved our inflation goal” she explained Friday.



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Europe’s best kept secret: Poland, the region’s economic tiger

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Nothing seems to get in the way of Poland going from strength to strength despite being part of the sluggish European Union. There are multiple reasons why and many facets, including the country’s outstanding defense spending and its conservative Donald Trump-like approach to illicit immigration.

Late last month, Poland’s economy was estimated to have grown by 2.9% last year, according to the country’s StatOffice. That performance trounces Europe’s single currency area, also known as the eurozone, by more than threefold; it eked out a mere 0.7% over the same period. 

Poland’s growth also overtook the U.S., which grew a robust 2.5% in the 12 months through December. 

“The last year or two has seen a boom, and it’s getting publicity,” says Mateusz Urban, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in Warsaw, Poland, told FOX Business. “There really is a European tiger right at Germany’s door.”

GERMANY IN ECONOMIC DOLDRUMS AMID TRUMP TARIFF WAR, CHINA COMPETITION

shoppers in poland

Consumers walk by a shopping center in Warsaw, the capital of Poland, July 4, 2024.  (Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)

This isn’t a one-off event. By 2024, Poland’s economy had grown to 11 times as big as in 1986. That considerably outpaces the U.S., which grew its economy to be six times as big over the same period, according to data from Trading Economics. 

Urban says a big part of Poland’s fast growth involved unlocking human capital after the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the many decades of USSR rule, the government devoted a lot of effort to educating people in math, science and engineering, and the ongoing impact of those universities and schools is still much appreciated. 

“These kinds of institutions have a long-lasting legacy,” Urban said. “After 1989, Poland inherited quite a well-organized system that managed to produce a good number of specialists in mechanical engineering and information technology.”

DREAMS OF ‘UNITED STATES OF EUROPE’ DYING FAST AS EU BACKTRACKS AMID ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

That focus on science, tech, engineering and math helped the country build an impressive tech sector estimated to be worth $32 billion, or 4.5% of the economy this year, according to the Mordor Intelligence research company. 

Polish workers are also “very hardworking, with high standards, and cheaper to employ than people in the United Kingdom,” Elias Haddad, a senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London, told FOX Business. 

Another factor Poland is benefiting from is the appointment of EU veteran Donald Tusk as prime minister in December 2023. Previous to him, the Polish Law and Justice Party, led by Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki, had been sanctioned by the European Commission [EC] due to the belief that Poland’s judiciary was not independent of the government. 

“The party were not abiding by some of the EU rules,” Haddad says.

flags

The white and red national flag of Poland and the flag of the European Union in Brandenburg.  (Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The result was the EC held back EU funds meant to help Poland. But now with Tusk firmly in the hot seat, EU money should all be released, giving the economy yet another boost.

While the country is growing fast, it is also on the front line of NATO, the military alliance founded after WWII, bordering Ukraine. The country is expected to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defense this year, which is a larger percentage than any other NATO member, and it led the way in 2024 as well. 

“We are aware that Germany won’t be able to rescue Poland,” Urban says. “That’s why the government is pushing spending to near 5% of GDP.” 

For decades, Germany failed to reach its NATO commitment of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense, according to the World Bank. In 2024, it reached 2.1%.

While Poland has responded positively to the Ukraine-Russia war during that time, it has also taken on a burden of more than 7 million refugees from Ukraine. 

“Since the war, we became an attractive place for immigration and refugees,” Marcin Klucznik, a senior advisor for the world economy team at the Polish Economic Institute, told FOX Business. 

Make POland great again hat

A man wears a “Make Poland Great Again” cap while attending the Independence March celebrating the 106th anniversary of Poland regaining independence in Warsaw, Poland Nov. 11, 2024. (Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)

However, that massive influx has led to discussions of who Poland wants to attract to its country, Klucznik says. Last month Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate for Poland’s presidency, requested the government stop paying so-called child benefit subsidies to Ukrainians with children but who aren’t officially working. He has stated that only those working and paying their taxes should get aid from the state.

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Klucznik said the country is conservative and cautious with its immigration policy. 

“We are aware of some of the mistakes made by other European countries such as Germany, France and the U.K., and we want to avoid some of that,” he said. 

In particular, those three large countries have failed to get many immigrants to integrate fully into the local culture. 



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Kevin O’Leary warns TikTok’s fate could be determined by ‘secret golden share’ granting Beijing ‘veto’ power

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Kevin O’Leary warns TikTok’s fate could be determined by ‘secret golden share’ granting Beijing ‘veto’ power


TikTok’s fate could be left up to Beijing thanks to a “secret” arrangement granting the Chinese government leverage over any potential deal involving the platform, “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary told FOX Business on Monday.

“There is something called a secret golden share that every Chinese company has to issue to the CCP leadership. That’s Xi [Jinping] himself, and it turns out that ByteDance can’t negotiate anything unless he’s made a decision,” the O’Leary Ventures Chairman told “Mornings with Maria” guest host Cheryl Casone.

“The secret share is a veto power over all other shareholders,” he explained. “They do not have any rights once the secret share has been issued, so now we’re dealing with what to do with the secret share, because until she decides what’s going to happen, it doesn’t matter what shareholders think or the CEO or any of the management, it’s irrelevant. It’s the secret golden share that determines the fate of TikTok now.” 

KEVIN O’LEARY PUTS $20 BILLION TIKTOK CASH OFFER ON THE TABLE: ‘MOST INTERESTING, COMPLICATED, CRAZY SITUATION’

Kevin O'Leary on Biden student debt

O’Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O’Leary discussed TikTok’s uncertain future while appearing on “Mornings with Maria” on Monday. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

As The New York Times explained, in this arrangement, the “Chinese government buys a small portion of a company’s equity in exchange for a seat on its board and veto power over certain company decisions.”

Speaking on the subject later on “Varney & Co.,” O’Leary said the news may come as a surprise to other investors involved with Chinese companies.

“They’re all subject to the holder of the secret golden share, and I would think that contravenes some U.S. securities laws, if you’re listed on a New York exchange or NASDAQ or any other exchange,” he said.

“Rumor has it today, here in Washington, that Lindsey [Graham]… will be launching a bill on this very shortly because we’re learning so much through this TikTok situation. There’s no deal yet. This deal now is in Trump’s hands and it will be his deal. Unfortunately, the option to extend 90 days is not currently in the existing law. So that’s going to have to be modified by Congress. And the option to have any Chinese ownership is not permitted by the 9 to 0 Supreme Court order. So… our hands are tied as buyers, and we are going to have to abide by the law unless President Trump is able to change it.”

TikTok has contrarily said, however, that, “an entity affiliated with the Chinese government owns 1% of a ByteDance subsidiary, Douyin Information Service,” and says the holding “has no bearing on ByteDance’s global operations outside of China, including TikTok,” according to Reuters.

The popular short video platform went dark for millions of users across the U.S. late Saturday after the Supreme Court, citing national security concerns, upheld a bipartisan law signed by President Biden last spring that required the app’s China-based parent company, ByteDance, to sell the platform or face a U.S. ban. 

While briefly going dark, the app featured a shout-out to Trump, who had previously said he will “most likely” give TikTok a 90-day extension from the Sunday deadline after assuming office.

PRIVACY GROUPS, EXPERTS, PARENTS LAUD SCOTUS TIKTOK BAN WHILE OTHERS SLAM DECISION AS ‘ANTI-DEMOCRATIC’

TikTok not available message

TikTok informed users on Saturday that it is no longer available due to the ban enacted in the U.S., while stating President-elect Trump is working on a solution. (TikTok / Fox News)

The app returned hours later, but its future remains in limbo.

Just minutes after the Supreme Court’s ruling, O’Leary put a $20 billion cash offer for the app on the table, arguing that selling to an American syndicate is the “obvious solution.”

He told Casone he has not had any negotiations with ByteDance thanks to the “golden share.”

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Reuters and FOX Business’ Alexandra Koch, Bradford Betz and Landon Mion contributed to this report.



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