Connect with us

Finance News

Calculating the intrinsic value of Broadwind, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWEN)

Published

on

Calculating the intrinsic value of Broadwind, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWEN)


Determining the Fair Value of Broadwind, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWEN),

Key Insights

  • Broadwind’s estimated fair value is US$1.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

  • Current share price of US$2.33 suggests Broadwind is potentially trading close to its fair value

  • Analyst price target for BWEN is US$5.88, which is 198% above our fair value estimate

Today we’ll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Broadwind, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWEN) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it’s not too difficult to follow, as you’ll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.


View our latest analysis for Broadwind

Is Broadwind Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$8.10m

US$3.40m

US$3.18m

US$3.06m

US$3.00m

US$2.98m

US$2.99m

US$3.01m

US$3.05m

US$3.10m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x1

Analyst x2

Est @ -6.38%

Est @ -3.78%

Est @ -1.96%

Est @ -0.68%

Est @ 0.21%

Est @ 0.83%

Est @ 1.27%

Est @ 1.58%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.4%

US$7.4

US$2.8

US$2.4

US$2.1

US$1.9

US$1.7

US$1.6

US$1.5

US$1.4

US$1.3

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$24m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.1m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (9.4%– 2.3%) = US$45m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$45m÷ ( 1 + 9.4%)10= US$18m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$42m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$2.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Broadwind as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 9.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.538. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Broadwind

Strength

Weakness

Opportunity

Threat

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It’s not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you’d apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company’s valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Broadwind, there are three essential factors you should consider:

  1. Risks: For example, we’ve discovered 4 warning signs for Broadwind (2 can’t be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

  2. Future Earnings: How does BWEN’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch
with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Frequently Asked Questions

  1. What is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model?

    The DCF model is a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows of a company and discounting them to today’s value.

  2. How is the fair value of a company determined in the DCF model?

    The fair value is determined by calculating the present value of all expected future cash flows and the terminal value after a specified period, then dividing by the total number of shares outstanding to get the

Continue Reading

Finance News

Stop betting today with BetBreaks Workbook

Published

on

Product Name: Stop betting today with BetBreaks Workbook

Click here to get Stop betting today with BetBreaks Workbook at discounted price while it’s still available…

All orders are protected by SSL encryption – the highest industry standard for online security from trusted vendors.

Stop betting today with BetBreaks Workbook is backed with a 60 Day No Questions Asked Money Back Guarantee. If within the first 60 days of receipt you are not satisfied with Wake Up Lean™, you can request a refund by sending an email to the address given inside the product and we will immediately refund your entire purchase price, with no questions asked.

(more…)

Continue Reading

Finance News

Europe’s best kept secret: Poland, the region’s economic tiger

Published

on


Nothing seems to get in the way of Poland going from strength to strength despite being part of the sluggish European Union. There are multiple reasons why and many facets, including the country’s outstanding defense spending and its conservative Donald Trump-like approach to illicit immigration.

Late last month, Poland’s economy was estimated to have grown by 2.9% last year, according to the country’s StatOffice. That performance trounces Europe’s single currency area, also known as the eurozone, by more than threefold; it eked out a mere 0.7% over the same period. 

Poland’s growth also overtook the U.S., which grew a robust 2.5% in the 12 months through December. 

“The last year or two has seen a boom, and it’s getting publicity,” says Mateusz Urban, a senior economist at Oxford Economics in Warsaw, Poland, told FOX Business. “There really is a European tiger right at Germany’s door.”

GERMANY IN ECONOMIC DOLDRUMS AMID TRUMP TARIFF WAR, CHINA COMPETITION

shoppers in poland

Consumers walk by a shopping center in Warsaw, the capital of Poland, July 4, 2024.  (Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)

This isn’t a one-off event. By 2024, Poland’s economy had grown to 11 times as big as in 1986. That considerably outpaces the U.S., which grew its economy to be six times as big over the same period, according to data from Trading Economics. 

Urban says a big part of Poland’s fast growth involved unlocking human capital after the collapse of the Soviet Union. During the many decades of USSR rule, the government devoted a lot of effort to educating people in math, science and engineering, and the ongoing impact of those universities and schools is still much appreciated. 

“These kinds of institutions have a long-lasting legacy,” Urban said. “After 1989, Poland inherited quite a well-organized system that managed to produce a good number of specialists in mechanical engineering and information technology.”

DREAMS OF ‘UNITED STATES OF EUROPE’ DYING FAST AS EU BACKTRACKS AMID ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

That focus on science, tech, engineering and math helped the country build an impressive tech sector estimated to be worth $32 billion, or 4.5% of the economy this year, according to the Mordor Intelligence research company. 

Polish workers are also “very hardworking, with high standards, and cheaper to employ than people in the United Kingdom,” Elias Haddad, a senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London, told FOX Business. 

Another factor Poland is benefiting from is the appointment of EU veteran Donald Tusk as prime minister in December 2023. Previous to him, the Polish Law and Justice Party, led by Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki, had been sanctioned by the European Commission [EC] due to the belief that Poland’s judiciary was not independent of the government. 

“The party were not abiding by some of the EU rules,” Haddad says.

flags

The white and red national flag of Poland and the flag of the European Union in Brandenburg.  (Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The result was the EC held back EU funds meant to help Poland. But now with Tusk firmly in the hot seat, EU money should all be released, giving the economy yet another boost.

While the country is growing fast, it is also on the front line of NATO, the military alliance founded after WWII, bordering Ukraine. The country is expected to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defense this year, which is a larger percentage than any other NATO member, and it led the way in 2024 as well. 

“We are aware that Germany won’t be able to rescue Poland,” Urban says. “That’s why the government is pushing spending to near 5% of GDP.” 

For decades, Germany failed to reach its NATO commitment of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense, according to the World Bank. In 2024, it reached 2.1%.

While Poland has responded positively to the Ukraine-Russia war during that time, it has also taken on a burden of more than 7 million refugees from Ukraine. 

“Since the war, we became an attractive place for immigration and refugees,” Marcin Klucznik, a senior advisor for the world economy team at the Polish Economic Institute, told FOX Business. 

Make POland great again hat

A man wears a “Make Poland Great Again” cap while attending the Independence March celebrating the 106th anniversary of Poland regaining independence in Warsaw, Poland Nov. 11, 2024. (Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)

However, that massive influx has led to discussions of who Poland wants to attract to its country, Klucznik says. Last month Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate for Poland’s presidency, requested the government stop paying so-called child benefit subsidies to Ukrainians with children but who aren’t officially working. He has stated that only those working and paying their taxes should get aid from the state.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

Klucznik said the country is conservative and cautious with its immigration policy. 

“We are aware of some of the mistakes made by other European countries such as Germany, France and the U.K., and we want to avoid some of that,” he said. 

In particular, those three large countries have failed to get many immigrants to integrate fully into the local culture. 



Source link

Continue Reading

Finance News

Kevin O’Leary warns TikTok’s fate could be determined by ‘secret golden share’ granting Beijing ‘veto’ power

Published

on

Kevin O’Leary warns TikTok’s fate could be determined by ‘secret golden share’ granting Beijing ‘veto’ power


TikTok’s fate could be left up to Beijing thanks to a “secret” arrangement granting the Chinese government leverage over any potential deal involving the platform, “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary told FOX Business on Monday.

“There is something called a secret golden share that every Chinese company has to issue to the CCP leadership. That’s Xi [Jinping] himself, and it turns out that ByteDance can’t negotiate anything unless he’s made a decision,” the O’Leary Ventures Chairman told “Mornings with Maria” guest host Cheryl Casone.

“The secret share is a veto power over all other shareholders,” he explained. “They do not have any rights once the secret share has been issued, so now we’re dealing with what to do with the secret share, because until she decides what’s going to happen, it doesn’t matter what shareholders think or the CEO or any of the management, it’s irrelevant. It’s the secret golden share that determines the fate of TikTok now.” 

KEVIN O’LEARY PUTS $20 BILLION TIKTOK CASH OFFER ON THE TABLE: ‘MOST INTERESTING, COMPLICATED, CRAZY SITUATION’

Kevin O'Leary on Biden student debt

O’Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O’Leary discussed TikTok’s uncertain future while appearing on “Mornings with Maria” on Monday. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

As The New York Times explained, in this arrangement, the “Chinese government buys a small portion of a company’s equity in exchange for a seat on its board and veto power over certain company decisions.”

Speaking on the subject later on “Varney & Co.,” O’Leary said the news may come as a surprise to other investors involved with Chinese companies.

“They’re all subject to the holder of the secret golden share, and I would think that contravenes some U.S. securities laws, if you’re listed on a New York exchange or NASDAQ or any other exchange,” he said.

“Rumor has it today, here in Washington, that Lindsey [Graham]… will be launching a bill on this very shortly because we’re learning so much through this TikTok situation. There’s no deal yet. This deal now is in Trump’s hands and it will be his deal. Unfortunately, the option to extend 90 days is not currently in the existing law. So that’s going to have to be modified by Congress. And the option to have any Chinese ownership is not permitted by the 9 to 0 Supreme Court order. So… our hands are tied as buyers, and we are going to have to abide by the law unless President Trump is able to change it.”

TikTok has contrarily said, however, that, “an entity affiliated with the Chinese government owns 1% of a ByteDance subsidiary, Douyin Information Service,” and says the holding “has no bearing on ByteDance’s global operations outside of China, including TikTok,” according to Reuters.

The popular short video platform went dark for millions of users across the U.S. late Saturday after the Supreme Court, citing national security concerns, upheld a bipartisan law signed by President Biden last spring that required the app’s China-based parent company, ByteDance, to sell the platform or face a U.S. ban. 

While briefly going dark, the app featured a shout-out to Trump, who had previously said he will “most likely” give TikTok a 90-day extension from the Sunday deadline after assuming office.

PRIVACY GROUPS, EXPERTS, PARENTS LAUD SCOTUS TIKTOK BAN WHILE OTHERS SLAM DECISION AS ‘ANTI-DEMOCRATIC’

TikTok not available message

TikTok informed users on Saturday that it is no longer available due to the ban enacted in the U.S., while stating President-elect Trump is working on a solution. (TikTok / Fox News)

The app returned hours later, but its future remains in limbo.

Just minutes after the Supreme Court’s ruling, O’Leary put a $20 billion cash offer for the app on the table, arguing that selling to an American syndicate is the “obvious solution.”

He told Casone he has not had any negotiations with ByteDance thanks to the “golden share.”

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

Reuters and FOX Business’ Alexandra Koch, Bradford Betz and Landon Mion contributed to this report.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2017 Zox News Theme. Theme by MVP Themes, powered by WordPress.